By mid-November, everyone thinks they know who’s heading to the Super Bowl. You look at the standings, see a bunch of 8-2 teams, and assume the script is written. But honestly? NFL games Week 11 in the 2025 season felt like someone took that script and threw it into a woodchipper. It wasn't just about the scores. It was the weird, high-stakes chaos that redefined the playoff race.
We saw a rookie MVP race heat up in New England. We saw the first-ever game in Madrid. We saw teams like the Jets and Cowboys basically waving white flags while the Broncos and Rams turned into legitimate monsters. If you weren't paying attention to the subplots, you missed the real story of the season.
The Drake Maye Era and the Thursday Night "Trap"
The week kicked off with a matchup that, on paper, looked like a blowout waiting to happen. The New England Patriots (8-2) hosted the New York Jets (2-7). Most fans expected the Patriots to just roll over a Jets team that had recently traded away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
It didn't quite go that way.
The Jets actually showed some life, winning two straight before this game. But Drake Maye is different. The kid has cemented himself as the MVP favorite, and his 27-14 dismantling of the Jets felt like a changing of the guard in the AFC East. The Patriots debuted their "Rivalries" uniforms, but the real story was the Jets' offense. Or lack thereof. Without Garrett Wilson, who was sidelined with a knee sprain, New York had zero answers.
NFL Games Week 11: The Spain Experiment and Sunday Chaos
Sunday morning started at 9:30 a.m. ET, not in London or Germany, but at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid. The Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders played a game that was frankly a defensive eyesore, but historical nonetheless. Miami escaped with a 16-13 overtime win.
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Washington was hurting. Jayden Daniels was out with an elbow injury, and Terry McLaurin was sidelined with a quad issue. Marcus Mariota tried his best, but the Dolphins' defense held firm enough to keep Miami’s season on life support.
The Afternoon Shootouts
If the morning was a defensive grind, the afternoon was a track meet.
- Bryce Young had a career day for the Carolina Panthers, throwing for 448 yards in a 30-27 OT win against the Falcons.
- The Buffalo Bills took down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-32. Josh Allen was surgical, even with Dalton Kincaid out.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars hammered the LA Chargers 35-6. However, the victory was bittersweet as rookie sensation Travis Hunter went down with a season-ending LCL injury.
Why the Broncos are for Real
One of the biggest shocks of the 2025 season has been the Denver Broncos. They hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in a game that felt like a playoff preview. Bo Nix, who led the league with seven game-winning drives this year, outdueled Patrick Mahomes in a 22-19 thriller.
The Chiefs are 5-4. They have the "car," but they can't find the gas pedal. Meanwhile, Sean Payton has the Broncos sitting at 8-2. They've found a gem in rookie RB RJ Harvey, who took over the backfield after J.K. Dobbins went down. Denver’s defense is legit, and Nix is playing like a veteran.
The NFC North Power Struggle
The Sunday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions was the "gritty" game of the year. The Eagles won 16-9 in a match that lacked style points but mattered immensely for seeding.
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The Lions are in a weird spot. Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling from John Morton, and while it worked earlier, they couldn't find the end zone against a Philly defense led by Jordan Davis. Saquon Barkley did Saquon things, and the Eagles moved to 7-2, proving they can win ugly when they have to.
Breaking Down the Numbers: Week 11 Results
Honestly, keeping track of all these scores is a headache. Here is the raw data of what went down across the league:
The Steelers crushed the Bengals 34-12. The Joe Flacco magic finally ran out in Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh's defense made life miserable for him. In the battle for the NFC North, the Bears nipped the Vikings 19-17. Caleb Williams did just enough, while Justin Jefferson was held to a season-low 61 yards.
In the desert, the 49ers reminded everyone why they’re still dangerous, thumping the Cardinals 41-22. Christian McCaffrey was back to his usual self, and Arizona looked like a team ready for the offseason.
The week ended in Las Vegas on Monday night. The Dallas Cowboys beat the Raiders 33-16, a win that felt heavy for a Dallas team mourning the tragic loss of DE Marshawn Kneeland. Dak Prescott threw for 268 yards, and the Cowboys moved to 3-5-1, keeping their tiny playoff hopes alive.
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The Injury Bug is Ravaging the League
You can't talk about NFL games Week 11 without talking about the training room. It’s getting ugly out there.
- Travis Hunter (JAX): Out for the season (LCL). This is a massive blow to the Jags' momentum.
- Jaxson Dart (NYG): In concussion protocol. With Brian Daboll recently fired, the Giants are a mess.
- Joe Burrow (CIN): Dealing with a toe injury. The Bengals' season is essentially over at 3-6.
- Garrett Wilson (NYJ): Expected to miss 3-4 weeks with a knee sprain.
What This Means for Your Betting and Fantasy Strategy
If you’re still trying to play the "safe" teams, you’re probably losing money. The league is top-heavy with the Patriots, Broncos, and Eagles, but the middle class is a disaster.
Watch the "Buy-Low" Teams
The Ravens (4-5) just beat the Browns 23-16. Lamar Jackson and Roquan Smith are finally healthy, and they have a soft schedule coming up. They are a "buy-low" team in the betting markets right now.
Avoid the Cowboys and Jets
These teams have basically quit. The Jets trading away their defensive stars and the Cowboys' general lack of offensive rhythm makes them radioactive for bettors.
The Underdog Trend
Week 11 saw several home underdogs cover or win outright (look at Denver). The 2025 season is the year of the rookie quarterback and the veteran defense. If a team has a top-10 defense and a game-manager QB, they are almost always worth the points.
Actionable Insights for the Home Stretch
As we move into the final weeks of the regular season, keep these three things in mind to stay ahead of the curve:
- Trust the Broncos' Defense: They aren't a fluke. Their ability to stifle elite QBs like Mahomes makes them a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the AFC.
- Monitor the NFC West: The Rams and Seahawks are neck-and-neck at 7-2. Their Week 11 clash (Rams won 21-19) showed that Matthew Stafford still has plenty of elite ball left in him.
- Ignore the "Style Points": Teams like the Eagles and Vikings are winning ugly. In November and December, a 16-9 win is worth exactly the same as a 44-32 win. Focus on the win-loss column and turnover differentials rather than highlight reels.
The 2025 season is entering its most brutal phase. With the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints coming off their byes in Week 12, the playoff picture is going to get even cloudier. Stay focused on the injury reports—especially the "designated to return" windows for stars like Joe Burrow and Bucky Irving—because those returns will decide the Wild Card spots.